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Additional measures needed to reach climate targets

Even if all countries keep their climate commitments, global emissions are still too high, falling short of the goal to limit global warming below 1.5°C.

One of the conclusions of McKinsey's ‘Global Energy Perspective 2023’ report is that global emissions are expected to peak in the mid 2020s. However, this is not enough for staying within the 1.5°C limit.

‘Our forecasts suggest that warming can be expected to be between 1.6°C and 2.9°C. This signals an urgent need for increased global action,’ said Jukka Maksimainen, senior partner at McKinsey’s Helsinki office and the global co-leader of the Global Energy & Materials practice.

The report provides a comprehensive overview of the global energy sector, analysing various industries, fuel types and geographies.

The global demand for electricity is expected to more than double by 2050. In this significant electrification of energy consumption, renewable energy will play a leading role. The share of renewable energy will constitute 45 to 50% of electricity production by 2030, potentially rising to 65 to 85% by 2050.

In all scenarios of the report, solar power emerges as the largest source of renewable energy, followed by wind power.

According to the report, the world will probably see a peak in demand for fossil fuels by 2030. Total natural gas demand to 2040 is projected to increase. This is partly influenced by the need to support and balance electricity production based on renewable energy sources.

‘How the demand for gas and fossil fuels develops depends on how quickly we electrify and switch to renewable electricity. Electrification specifically will play a key role in reducing emissions,’ concluded Jukka Maksimainen.


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